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The Future of the City & Technology Trends

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Samuel Palmisano (Chairman of IBM):

A few years ago, the world crossed a threshold. For the first time, more than half the human race is living in cities. By 2050 the figure will rise to 70 percent. We are adding the equivalent of seven New Yorks to the planet every year.

This means the most important locus for 21st-century innovation--technological, economic, and societal--will be our cities. They present the most promising opportunity to make our planet smarter.

Cities bring together the systems by which our world works: education, transportation, public safety, and health care, among others.

We have the capacity to inject new intelligence into those systems. Enormous computational power can be delivered in forms so small and inexpensive that it is being put into phones, cars, and appliances, as well as things we wouldn't recognize as computers, such as roadways (to monitor traffic) or rivers (to monitor pollution and better allocate water use). The data captured by these digital devices--soon to number in the trillions--will be turned to intelligence, because we now have the processing power and advanced analytics to make sense of it all.

Our challenge is to apply this technology to improving the places we live. Consider the applications:

Things we know:
  • Networks, particularly wireless, will be faster and pervasive
  • Mobile technology is exploding, and will be the right tool at the right time for most real estate professionals, see the latest version of our branded iPhone app. It is faster, easier to use and more convenient than most traditional website search and analysis tools.
  • People are flooded with data. Turning that data into useful information - the "value add" and building relationships is the key to broker business growth.
  • Some of the broker concierge services schemes from dot com boom #1 may now actually happen. Our Main Street software includes an extensive set of CRM/customer for life, transaction and concierge tools. One real time system from leads to closings.
  • The key question for all organizations: "what is your value equation?"
Let's discuss the opportunities that lie ahead. Contact Virtual Properties +1 608 271 9601 or zellmer at virtualproperties.com

Tom Foremski:

We share a common belief that trust is an important currency in today's world especially in the digital realm.

Trust, we are taught, is hard won. It takes a long time to establish trust yet it can be destroyed in minutes.

But is that really true?

I've been looking at the Edelman Trust Barometer reports and it shows that trust in businesses, in media both social and traditional, in NGOs, in governments, jumps up and down by large margins from year to year.

I've been particularly interested in trust in social and traditional media. In the latest report, trust in peers, which represents social media, plunged by 20 points from 47 percent of those surveyed in the prior year, to 27 percent. Trust in other forms of media also fell by large margins.

Fascinating, though not really surprising given the amount of social media "spam" circulating around the internet. Useful, timely content and commentary will always add value. Spam clearly detracts.

Details here: 3MB Edelman PDF, website.

First: happy new year and best wishes for a healthy and prosperous 2010!

Second: 2010 change and opportunity.

I have been traveling extensively the past few weeks. It is always interesting and useful to observe people, their activities and gadgets.

Hands down, iPhone and iPod Touch devices dominated aircraft, airport and holiday scenes. I did see a few blackberries (one family had a company blackberry and several iPhones) and one Droid.

The recent smartphone explosion along with the introduction of useful "tablet" or "slate" devices will continue to change the way in which people use, create and interact with real estate information.

Most importantly, it will change their expectations......

What does this mean for brokers and agents?

## A) Mobile

The "killer app" - from a VP customer - for real estate buyers, sellers and professionals.

www.virtualproperties.com/iphone/

Our second major release in 9 months, your branded iPhone app provides essential website functions in a faster, easier to use application. Always on, this "app" can be accessed at home, work, on the go, while working out, dining, traveling - anywhere.

Our software makes sure the app is up to date with the latest property information and technology. It includes property comparison tools and unlimited use mapping services. Stop paying for maps on a per click basis.

Your organization must be in this space.

There will be competing devices, though it is not yet clear who will successfully challenge the iPhone infrastructure.

## B) "Tablet or Slate" computing and real estate

There has been no shortage of hype recently about these new devices. From my perspective, the real change will be to traditional laptop formats. Physical keyboards will certainly be available for some time, but, virtual keyboards (via touchscreens with "multi-touch" gestures) will take over the volume portable device space.

Many real estate firms have published traditional magazines, as a marketing and advertising vehicle.

This conceptual video, by Bonner Mag+ neatly summarizes digital magazine possibilities with emerging devices:

http://www.bonnier.com/en/content/digital-magazines-bonnier-mag-prototype

The video reinforces the benefits of high quality, well organized information. Our Main Street single entry cloud software generates timely media and text content for many publications in different formats, including html and pdf. Our clients do not need to add yet another vendor and platform to support these emerging applications.

www.virtualproperties.com/rt/ms.html

## C) Your Website

The iPhone app explosion is changing buyer and seller information convenience and access expectations. Does your website address these changing customer desires?

Accelerate your website with our Main Street cloud software's new customer portal tools. From lead generation to transactions and customer for life, Main Street manages your world in real time.

One vendor.

Virtual Properties is your trusted technology team - since 1995. Do you have the right people, platform and technology partner for 2010 and beyond?



Morgan Stanley's Latest: The Mobile Internet Report:

Our global technology and telecom analysts set out to do a deep dive into the rapidly changing mobile Internet market. We wanted to create a data-rich, theme-based framework for thinking about how the market may develop. We intend to expand and edit the framework as the market evolves. A lot has changed since we published "The Internet Report" in 1995 on the web.

We decided to create The Mobile Internet Report largely in PowerPoint and publish it on the web, expecting that bits and pieces of it will be cut / pasted / redistributed and debated / dismissed / lauded. Our goal is to get our thoughts and data into the conversation about what may be the biggest technology trend ever, one that may help make us all more informed in ways that are unique to the web circa 2009, and beyond.

Our key takeaways are:

Material wealth creation / destruction should surpass earlier computing cycles. The mobile Internet cycle, the 5th cycle in 50 years, is just starting. Winners in each cycle often create more market capitalization than in the last. New winners emerge, some incumbents survive - or thrive - while many past winners falter.

The mobile Internet is ramping faster than desktop Internet did, and we believe more users may connect to the Internet via mobile devices than desktop PCs within 5 years.

Five IP-based products / services are growing / converging and providing the underpinnings for dramatic growth in mobile Internet usage - 3G adoption + social networking + video + VoIP + impressive mobile devices.

Apple + Facebook platforms serving to raise the bar for how users connect / communicate - their respective ramps in user and developer engagement may be unprecedented.

and, via Fortune:

"Apple has a two or three-year lead" according to Katy Huberty, thanks to an installed base of 57 million handsets, 100,000 apps and 200 million iTunes subscribers with credit card numbers on file. (She will keep her eye, however, on Samsung, Nokia (NOK) and Google's (GOOG) Android.)

But much of the presentation was spent showing, in slides culled from research over the past two and a half years, that the iPhone is not like previous mobile devices, and its owners not like ordinary cell phone users.

For example, although iPhone and iPod touch owners represent only 17% of the global smartphone installed base, they account for 65% of the world's mobile Web browsing and 50% of its mobile app usage (see chart below).

Key Virtual Properties assets to help you take advantage of the mobile explosion:

Mary Meeker, Scott Devitt & Liang Wu [1.5MB PDF]:

Mary Meeker, Scott Devitt & Liang Wu [1.5MB PDF]:
Financial Market + Economy Update / Dashboard
  1. Financial Markets Have Rebounded, Technology Sector = Relatively Impressive.
  2. Leading Economic Indicators Seem to Have Turned Corner, Coincident / Lagging Indicators Still Weak.
Mobile = Incremental Driver of Internet User / Usage Growth
  1. Mobile Internet Usage Is and Will Be Bigger than Most Think.
  2. Apple Mobile Share Should Surprise on Upside Near-Term.
  3. Next Generation Platforms (Social Networking + Mobile) Driving Unprecedented Change in Communications + Commerce.
  4. Mobile in Japan + Desktop Internet Provide Roadmaps for Mobile Growth + Monetization.
  5. 3G Adoption / Trends Vary By Geography.
  6. Carriers in USA / W. Europe Face Surging Network Demand But Uncertain Economics.
  7. Regulators Can Help Advance / Slow Mobile Internet Evolution.
  8. Mobile-Related Share Shifts Will Create / Destroy Material Shareholder Wealth.


Virtual Properties latest broker branded iPhone app is now available. Contact us to learn more: zellmer@virtualproperties.com Virtual Properties provides a number of real time, mobile tools, including its 2nd generation iPhone app, mobile public websites and Main Street intranet tools.

Dan Pink on the surprising science of motivation

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Ted Talks:

Career analyst Dan Pink examines the puzzle of motivation, starting with a fact that social scientists know but most managers don't: Traditional rewards aren't always as effective as we think. Listen for illuminating stories -- and maybe, a way forward.

Smartphone Sales Grow 27% in Most Recent Quarter

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gartner82009.jpg
Gartner:

Worldwide mobile phone sales totalled 286.1 million units in the second quarter of 2009, a 6.1 per cent decrease from the second quarter of 2008, according to Gartner, Inc. Smartphone sales surpassed 40 million units, a 27 per cent increase from the same period last year, representing the fastest-growing segment of the mobile-devices market (see Table 2).

"Despite the challenging market, some devices sold well as consumers who would usually have purchased standard midrange devices either cut back to less expensive handsets or moved up the range to get more features for their money," said Carolina Milanesi, research director at Gartner. "Touchscreen and qwerty devices remained a major driver for replacement sales and benefited manufacturers with strong, touch-focused midtier devices. However, the decline in average selling price (ASP) accelerated in the first half of the year and particularly affected manufacturers that focus on midtier and low-end devices, where margins are already slim."

Virtual Properties supports real time Main Street mobile websites and a branded iPhone / iPod Touch app (with no per transaction or page load mapping fees!). Brokers and agents should use these sites and apps to become familiar with the mobile environment. Things that may work on a link heavy home page or website often get in the way in a mobile environment. Very few devices actually work well with mobile websites.

Realogy Reports Second-Quarter Loss of $15 Million

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Oshrat Carmiel:

8 billion in 2007, said its second-quarter loss narrowed after the company cut expenses to offset a decline in revenue.

The net loss decreased to $15 million from $27 million a year earlier, Parsippany, New Jersey-based Realogy said today in a statement. Revenue dropped 27 percent to $1.02 billion.

The residential real estate slump is cutting revenue for brokers including Realogy, owner of Coldwell Banker and Century 21. Prices are being brought down in part by discounts on foreclosures. U.S. foreclosure filings hit a record in the first half, a sign that job losses and falling property prices deepened the housing recession, according to data provider RealtyTrac Inc. of Irvine, California.

Realogy's 10-Q can be found here. The 10-Q includes a discussion of Realogy's secured and unsecured debt and liquidity:
In connection with the closing of the Merger on April 10, 2007, the Company entered into a senior secured credit facility consisting of (i) a $3,170 million term loan facility, (ii) a $750 million revolving credit facility, and (iii) a $525 million synthetic letter of credit facility.
Interest rates with respect to term loans under the senior secured credit facility are based on, at the Company's option, (a) adjusted LIBOR plus 3.0% or (b) the higher of the Federal Funds Effective Rate plus 0.5% and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A.'s prime rate ("ABR") plus 2.0%. The term loan facility provides for quarterly amortization payments totaling 1% per annum of the principal amount with the balance due upon the final maturity date.
The Company's senior secured credit facility provides for a six-year, $750 million revolving credit facility, which includes a $200 million letter of credit sub-facility and a $50 million swingline loan sub-facility. The Company uses the revolving credit facility for, among other things, working capital and other general corporate purposes, including permitted acquisitions and investments. Interest rates with respect to revolving loans under the senior secured credit facility are based on, at the Company's option, adjusted LIBOR plus 2.25% or ABR plus 1.25% in each case subject to adjustment based on the attainment of certain leverage ratios. At June 30, 2009, the amount available for borrowings under our revolving credit facility was $4 million (after giving effect to $136 million of outstanding letters of credit).

The Company's senior secured credit facility provides for a six-and-a-half-year $525 million synthetic letter of credit facility for which the Company pays 300 basis points in interest on amounts utilized. The capacity of the synthetic letter of credit is reduced by 1% each year and as a result the amount available was reduced to $518 million on December 31, 2008 and to $515 million at June 30, 2009. On April 26, 2007, the synthetic letter of credit facility was used to post a $500 million letter of credit to secure the fair value of the Company's obligations with respect to Cendant's contingent and other liabilities that were assumed under the Separation and Distribution Agreement and the remaining capacity was utilized for general corporate purposes. The stated amount of the standby irrevocable letter of credit is subject to periodic adjustment to reflect the then current estimate of Cendant's contingent and other liabilities.
The Company's senior secured credit facility is secured to the extent legally permissible by substantially all of the assets of the Company's parent company, the Company and the subsidiary guarantors, including but not limited to (a) a first-priority pledge of substantially all capital stock held by the Company or any subsidiary guarantor (which pledge, with respect to obligations in respect of the borrowings secured by a pledge of the stock of any first-tier foreign subsidiary, is limited to 100% of the non-voting stock (if any) and 65% of the voting stock of such foreign subsidiary), and (b) perfected first-priority security interests in substantially all tangible and intangible assets of the Company and each subsidiary guarantor, subject to certain exceptions.

Unsecured debt:

Beginning with the interest period which ended October 2008, the Company elected to satisfy the interest payment obligation by issuing additional Senior Toggle Notes. This PIK Interest election is now the default election for future interest periods through October 15, 2011 unless the Company notifies otherwise prior to the commencement date of a future interest period.

......

ased upon the Company's current financial forecast and additional equity available through December 31, 2009, as set forth in the 2008 Form 10-K, the Company believes that it will continue to be in compliance with, or be able to avoid an event of default under, the senior secured leverage ratio and meet its cash flow needs during the next twelve months. The Company has the right to avoid an event of default of the senior secured leverage ratio in three of any of the four consecutive quarters through the issuance of additional Holdings equity for cash, which would be infused as capital into the Company. The effect of such infusion would be to increase Adjusted EBITDA and reduce net senior secured indebtedness.

Real Time Information Execution Benefits

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Don Sull:

Execution starts with when a team or organization forms a shared understanding of the market situation. A start-up's business plan and an established company's strategy are both examples of what I call mental maps, shared models that represent reality and serve to guide action. Mental maps can range from detailed plans in thick binders to a simple insight sketched on a cocktail napkin. Differences in form should not obscure similarity in role-all mental maps represent the environment, highlight important variables, and suggest a way forward.

Even the best mental map is an imperfect representation. Mental maps can only incorporate current knowledge, and exclude new insights that will only emerge in the future. Maps simplify a complex reality, thereby ignoring potentially important variables and interactions. Competitors will go out of their way to exploit blind spots in any map. We know only one thing about our maps with certainty-they are flawed.

How can leaders update imperfect mental maps as circumstances shift? An important part of the answer lies in collecting the right type of information. Along with my co-author Stefano Turconi, I have been studying the type of data required to map a situation in flux, and identified four critical attributes: The best information is real time, unfiltered, shared, and holistic. My next few posts will discuss each in turn, beginning with real time.

Main Street, a real time internet system for agents, clients and brokers, was designed from day one to be your comprehensive information source. One, real time system is an asset (arguably your most valuable asset) that allows your organization to implement and execute new initiatives faster than brokerages mired in information spaghetti. Related: Both sides now.

Dennis Jacobe:

Plunging housing prices combined with historically low interest rates have persuaded 71% of Americans that now is a "good time" to buy a house -- up 18 percentage points from a year ago and the highest level of housing-purchase optimism in four years.
Is your business ready? Some firms will address the opportunity by growing costs, while others (fewer, probably) will embrace automation and new services, including ReData.

Related: Recent census relocation data.

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